Former Chief Economist & Director of Analytics, Gardner Intelligence
Another month of robust new orders for manufactured goods sent the GBI: Metalworking higher. Among only metalworking job shops, strong new order growth, increased supplier delivery activity, and an unprecedented backlog level sent the index to a multi-year high.
The strong growth of new orders over the last three months has resulted in increased backlogs. Job shops reported in February that supplier deliveries increased nearly 6 percent over the last month to improve their responsiveness to strong demand. (Chart of three-month moving averages does not illustrate single-month expansion.)
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Registering 61.3 for February, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Metalworking extended its 2018 rally by setting a consecutive record high. Compared to the same month one year ago, the Metalworking Index grew by more than 9 percent. Gardner Intelligence’s review of the underlying data for February indicates that strong increases in the expansion of new orders, production, backlog and supplier deliveries drove the Metalworking Index higher. Although employment and exports readings both expanded, they pulled the index average lower for the month. All components of the Metalworking Index expanded during February. For a third month in a row, new orders outpaced production. Gardner Intelligence’s review of past data trends suggests that when new orders growth exceeds production, manufacturers can expect continued industry growth.
The interruption after what had been three straight months of slowing contraction may indicate growing conservatism as interest rates and inflation fail to come down.
A sharp increase in future business expectations underscores hopeful conditions in 2025.
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